India festive smartphone sales to fall 12% on memory costs

India's festive season, the country's biggest time of year for buying phones, will see 12% fewer smartphones sold than last year, Counterpoint Research projected on October 7, 2026. The value of those sales should still rise 5%, because each phone costs more. Soaring memory chip prices are pushing prices up, and the cheapest phones are being hit hardest. For anyone building apps for Indian users, it means more people holding on to older and cheaper devices.

The forecast settles a question left open last month. Counterpoint put India's 2026 smartphone price rise at 21% in September, and analysts said the festive quarter would show whether those prices hold.

The numbers

Two research firms, Counterpoint and IDC, tell the same story of falling volume:

Measure	Figure	Source
Festive-season volume	Down 12% year on year	Counterpoint, October 7
Festive-season value	Up 5% year on year	Counterpoint, October 7
Weekly sales, Week 14 to Week 31	Down 14% year on year	Counterpoint, August 19
First-half 2026 shipments	Down 11.1% to 33.2 million	IDC, via The Core
Second-half 2026 shipments	Expected down more than 15%	IDC, via The Core
Full-year 2026 shipments	About 128 million to 130 million	IDC, via The Core

IDC called the first half the weakest in five years, The Core reports. IDC also expects few festive discounts this year.

Why phones cost more

Memory is the main cause. Memory chip prices are up 4.5 times in a year, and memory's share of a phone's cost has jumped from about 12% to roughly 40% to 45%, The Core reports. Demand from AI data centers is soaking up memory supply, and a weaker rupee adds to the import bill.

Counterpoint says average smartphone prices rose 15% by the end of the second quarter of 2026. About 95% of models got price increases between January and July. Apple was the only brand that did not raise prices on existing models, The Core reports.

Relief is not close. Madhur Singhal, managing partner at consultancy Praxis Global Alliance, told The Core that prices may not ease for another year or two.

Budget phones take the hit

The cheapest phones are disappearing fastest. In the second quarter, sales of phones under $100, about Rs 10,000 in Indian rupees, fell 74% from a year earlier, IDC data shows. Their share of the market dropped from 15.6% to 4.5%.

Tarun Pathak, a vice president at Counterpoint, expects phones under Rs 10,000 to be largely wiped out, The Core reports. Manufacturers are leaving the under-Rs 15,000 tier. Some have brought back 4G models or switched from OLED to cheaper LCD screens, with weaker front cameras and slower charging.

Buyers are turning to used phones instead. Pathak expects the refurbished market to grow 13%. Second-hand phones now make up about 20% of sales in India, up from about 12% in 2021, according to refurbisher Grest.

What this means for developers

• Test on older and cheaper phones. Fewer users will upgrade this season, and more will buy refurbished devices. Keep low-end and older Android phones in your test lab.
• Watch your app's memory use. Users who keep older phones longer have less memory to spare. Heavy apps will feel slower for them.
• Keep supporting 4G and LCD screens. Brands are bringing back 4G-only and LCD models to hit lower prices. Do not assume 5G or high-refresh screens.
• Budget more for test devices. If your team buys phones for testing, expect higher prices; Singhal sees no relief for a year or two.
• Plan for slower upgrade cycles. Features that need the newest chips will reach fewer Indian users this year.

Counterpoint's full festive-season results will show whether higher prices held or brands cut them to move stock.